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How do I calculate TAM, SAM and SOM for my startup?

Short answer

Bottom-up: TAM is the number of potential customers times what each pays per year; SAM is the share of that market your product and channels can actually serve; SOM is the share of SAM you can realistically win in the next few years. For example, 2 million potential customers at $240 a year is a $480M TAM; 25% serviceable is a $120M SAM; winning 2% of that is a $2.4M SOM.

Why bottom-up beats top-down

Taking a percentage of a large industry figure is easy but hard to defend. Counting customers and multiplying by a real price uses inputs anyone can check, which investors and you can reason about.

Choosing the shares

SAM should reflect real limits such as the regions, languages, platforms and customer types you serve. SOM should be justified by your channels and conversion rates; for a new product it is usually a small share.

Step by step

  1. Count customers. Estimate how many potential customers exist.
  2. Set the price. Use the annual price per customer.
  3. Apply your shares. Set the serviceable share (SAM) and the obtainable share (SOM).

Frequently asked questions

What is the difference between TAM and SAM?

TAM is everyone who could buy this kind of product; SAM is the part your product and channels can reach.

Is SOM a revenue forecast?

It is a reasoned target for the share you can win, not a guarantee.

Should I use monthly or annual price?

Annual is the convention for market size, so multiply monthly prices by 12.

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